English 1st Division Sunday

[Phaedrus]

Millwall at Gillingham
Draw 3.29 @ MegaSB

I think this is a great opportunity for a draw. Millwall is the better team and of course the favourite on odds, but has not been very strong on offense lately; Gillingham has been the exact opposite, with points coming in in almost all of their recent matches. At better than 3.00 for this match ending in a draw I can't pass it up.


Phaedrus

 

[JackDee]

great call, not really.

please avoid handicapping at all costs phaedrus, stick to political blathering, posting semi porn picks in the rubber room, wasting your life in a gambling forum posting non gambling trivial messages.

 

[Phaedrus]

Millwall didn't show up unfortunately. Still was a better than /3 chance.


0-1 -1


Phaedrus

 

[Phaedrus]

JackDee

I'm sure that it will be useless to respond to this drivel, as all discussion with you usually proves to be, but as badly as the Rx has sunk lately it is still considered in poor taste to bust a guy's balls over a losing pick. If I came into your thread and taunted you over your currently-negative Greek soccer season you would be crying like a little bitch to the moderators.

I bring this up only because of two things -- 1) look at your own posting archive before you get on anybody's case about posting political rhetoric, pornographic or semi-pornographic pictures, or otherwise non-gambling-related posts to the Rx. 2) Although I hate to admit a weakness, it is primarily in response to assholes like yourself and Henhouse who berate me repeatedly for not posting picks that I have begun posting again, and since I did (Thanksgiving weekend, one month ago roughly) I have gone:

English Div.1 Soccer: 0-0-1, -1.0
German Bundesliga.1 Soccer: 1-0-0, +1.0
NBA Basketball: 4-1-0, + 3.41
NCAAB Basketball: 1-0, +1.0
NFL Football: 1-0, +1.52
NHL Hockey: 4-1-1, + 4.70

For a combined 11-3-1, +10.23 in the last month. Now as the saying goes, even a blind pig finds a truffle from time to time, and I am as certain to have a losing streak as the next poster, if not more so. But I do feel that it is unfair to continue to characterise me as a "person who posts no picks" or who should "avoid handicapping at all costs," especially over a single losing pick. Why don't you worry about JackDee's picks and posting content rather than Phaedrus'? Your obsession with me is sad.


Phaedrus

 

[acw]

Phaedrus,

In all honesty you will seldomly find value on the Draw! And even worse is as they are far less than Even Money chances, so you will not hit them very often, you make it easy for guys like JackDee to pick on you! It is better to make Asian handicap selections.

 

[Phaedrus]

acw

The fact that I do not post often does not mean I know nothing about a given sport. I understand that draws are not the best value on a board -- I simply felt that in this particular game that a draw was somewhat more possible then the 1/3.29 chances that were implied by the odds. Millwall is a stronger team, Gillingham has been on a surge, and I felt that these two factors might play against one another to create a 1-1 outcome.

My post above was not intended to defend my pick however; it was intended to defend myself against my #1 fan JackDee, who seldom misses an opportunity to have a dig at me -- an activity which up to now I have graciously ignored for over two months, but to which I took exception in this particular case. For all of the various fights and tifts into which I have gotten on this board I have always considered it the absolute most rude thing a poster can do to take a stab at another poster over a losing pick, and I would book you -500 odds that if I made so much as one comment in Jack's "Greek picks" thread he would be calling for me to be banned or threatening to leave for Peep's.

Again, while I appreciate the insight regaridng draw picks, Jack's bile-spewing above had absolutely nothing to do with whether or not he thought it was smart for me to be betting on a 3.29 draw.


Phaedrus

 

[JackDee]

take it easy there phaed., life's to damn short to write diatribes over some unimportant internet feud. Don't be so self important. You got about 2150 posts and i would wager that less than 5% are gambling related, on your own admission the rest are political ramblings and semi nudes in the rubber room, you say you are doing well gambling and that you got a good record to prove that, well good for you. Also, let me clue you in on something, if you feel the urge to reply to such cyber wankers as henhouse (and take them seriously) then this forum has started to get to you, that goes as well for thinking that henhouse (or whoever ghost posts under this name for the kick) could do such as thing as to "berate" someone.

Happy new year, don't let forum life get to you, try going out more.

p.s. draws are the most unlikely result in soccer. Back when in most of continental europe the trend was to mark the draw with 1 point for local leagues, and the win with 2 points, the draws where somewhat more frequent, but nowadays with the 3-1-0 (win, draw, loss), and therefore much less of an incentive for teams to settle on a draw than risk a win, they appear at a rate of about 25%. Asian handicaps as acw points out might be better in the long run but that doesn't make a draw better neccesarily an amateurs option, provided that certain quantitative or qualitative factors (which would take me a long time to go into) apply, which in your selection was far from being the case.

 

[acw]

provided that certain quantitative or qualitative factors (which would take me a long time to go into) apply, which in your selection was far from being the case.
Jack,

This I do not really understand. You do not need to explain to me which quantitative or qualitative factors you mean, but personally the only times I consider the draw more likely than fundamentally to be expected is when at least one team can benefit from a draw. Or is this what you are actually trying to say?

 

[JackDee]

yeap this is one of those qualitative factors, when one or both teams benefit from the draw and would be content with it and hence will play a midfield or defensive minded formation and will not risk much for the win, you can find this scenario anywhere from local leagues to knock out head to head match ups. Another qualitative factor would be a defensive minded low scoring team vs. another of such type. You d have to factor in a lot of things such as pitch conditions, ref tendencies when faced with similar situations etc., some of which you might have quantified others not. I also like draws in a few other set ups too, for example you get team b +1/2 a goal for certain odds but you rate the chances of the draw higher than those indicated by the three way line, then i might risk a straight draw bet instead of lumping it together with the team b win.

btw, in an attempt to back up some of my claims and hunches in terms of football games i ve decided to start keeping a much more detailed database of my local league, with everything from refs, pitch conditions, time of year, dist. travelled, player ratings etc. etc. Do you reckon ms access will do the trick or should i start looking for something more intricate. I am asking you this because i remember you saying that you liked to keep accurate databases for your football betting.

 

[acw]

Microsoft Access is pure gold assuming that you know how to program in VBasic all the necessary regression stuff yourself, because they are not included in the software.

Another qualitative factor would be a defensive minded low scoring team vs. another of such type.
I have been working on this. Very much worth it!